Boeing launches 737 replacement program

The Journal is reporting that Boeing has started work on a replacement for its aging 737 narrowbody jets, holding talks with engine-maker Rolls Royce. The so-called “clean sheet” replacement for the super-popular narrow-body jet (meaning only one aisle) will undoubtedly receive a ton of input from airlines as part of securing their massive orders.

This comes as Boeing struggles to certify its newest and largest 737 variant, the MAX 10, as well as its smallest version, the MAX 7, popular with Southwest Airlines and few others. The plane-maker is also years behind on its 777X program, which will become the largest passenger jet in production when finally certified. Airlines aren’t happy, and many have defected to Airbus for its slightly smaller A350-1000. There are signs the tide is turning.

The current state

The 737 is a child of the ‘60s, beginning as a much smaller plane seating at most 124 passengers; the MAX 10 maxes at 230. As a complement to the 727, the 737 was designed for short, thin routes (that is, routes with less passenger demand). To accommodate a variety of airport facilities, the 737 is low to the ground for easy baggage handling and stair access.

As engine technology and the passenger jet market evolved, so did the 737, through the Classic, Next Generation, and MAX iterations. Many 737NGs still fly today; Southwest operates the largest fleet, but all US carriers use them. The plane became longer for more capacity, and engines became larger for efficiency.

We know what came next with the MAX and won’t go into it here.

Meanwhile Airbus launched the A320, which has overtaken the 737 to become the best selling plane in the world. The A320 comes in three sizes to match the 737, the A319, A320, and A321 (see the MAX 7, 8, and 10; the 10 cannibalizes sales from the 9). The Airbus is a much newer airframe, allowing wider seats, and has already been refreshed with new engines, the so-called neo versions (for new engine option). This triggered the 737’s MAX versions.

Airbus also bought Bombardier’s small jet program, which became the A220. This modern jet is praised for its passenger comfort and efficiency, and can be stretched again to match the capacity of an A320 or 737 MAX 8, almost certainly with lower operating costs than either. Meanwhile the A321 has been kitted out with additional fuel tanks to create a long-range (up to 4,000 miles) and extra-long-range (up to 4,700 miles) version. Boeing’s 737s can’t match.

Gaps in airframes

Boeing has a hole in its commercial lineup, which used to be filled by the 757 (a narrow-body jet like the 737) and the 767 (a wide-body jet, meaning two aisles). The unpopular 787-8 is the supposed replacement for the 767, but it’s overbuilt and too expensive for shorter missions. Meanwhile the MAX 10 is the supposed 757 replacement, but its range is only 3,100 miles vs. approximately 4,000 for the 757.

With narrow bodies, Boeing can only competitively match Airbus with the MAX 8. Meanwhile it has no answer to Airbus’s smaller A220 or extended-range A321s. There was talk of a New Market Airplane or NMA, also called the 797, but Boeing scrapped the program after the MAX debacle.

What to expect

A single-aisle plane that can potentially seat up to 250 or so passengers capable of missions up to 4,000 miles. I wouldn’t expect it soon, certainly after 2030 and maybe 2035.