Horizon cutting-room links: Monday, 7 April 2025

“House GOP leaders vow to push forward with budget vote,” Politico

House Republican leaders are determined to push through a revised Senate budget plan this week despite significant opposition from fiscal conservatives, who warn that the measure may fail if brought to a vote. Several hard-right members, including Rep. Chip Roy, have publicly vowed to oppose the plan, which combines $1.5 trillion in spending cuts with a Senate framework that only guarantees $4 billion in cut targets.

“In Matter of Days, Outlook Shifts From Solid Growth to Recession Risk,” Wall Street Journal

“The stock declines, a parallel selloff in junk bonds, the cost of tariffs, and the prospect of weaker exports from retaliatory tariffs all now weigh on the outlook.

“In a note titled ‘There Will Be Blood,’ JPMorgan’s head of economic research, Bruce Kasman, raised the probability of a global recession to 60% from 40%. The bank expects U.S. gross domestic product to contract 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025 from a year earlier; it previously expected 1.3% growth. Unemployment will reach 5.3% next year, JPMorgan says.”

“DOGE has arrived at the FTC,” the Verge

“It’s unclear what DOGE will target now that it is under the hood of the FTC. It’s a fairly lean agency with fewer than 1,200 employees tasked with consumer protection and antitrust enforcement. A small number of probationary workers were cut earlier this year. FTC chair Andrew Ferguson has already made clear that he believes regulatory agencies should operate under the control of the president, not as the independent bodies they’ve traditionally been.

“The agency has access to a vast trove of nonpublic information on businesses it investigates and studies, including material for an upcoming antitrust trial against Meta. … The FTC has active oversight of Musk’s businesses. X, for example, is under a long-running consent decree with the agency as a result of how Twitter mishandled user data before Musk purchased the social network.”

“Evaluation of the Secretary of Defense's Reported Use of a Commercially Available Messaging Application for Official Business,” DOD IG press release

DOD IG is initiating an evaluation concerning the Secretary of Defense's reported use of a commercially available messaging application for official communications, triggered by concerns from Senate Armed Services Committee leaders regarding its implications for military action discussions. This evaluation follows alarming public reports on the potential security risks associated with using unclassified messaging platforms for sensitive military information.

“‘Hands Off!’ protesters across US rally against President Donald Trump and Elon Musk,” CNN

On Saturday, 5 April, hundreds of thousands joined over 1,400 “Hands Off!” protests across all 50 states and major cities abroad, denouncing what organizers call a “billionaire power grab” by President Trump and senior advisor Elon Musk. Spearheaded by Indivisible and a broad coalition of unions and advocacy groups, demonstrators condemned mass federal layoffs, attacks on Social Security and Medicaid, and rollbacks of civil liberties.

Lawmakers including Reps. Jamie Raskin, Ilhan Omar, and Maxwell Frost rallied in Washington, DC, warning of authoritarianism and demanding protections for immigrants, trans people, and workers. Protesters also targeted Musk’s leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency, which has slashed aid programs and fired over 121,000 federal workers. Union leaders vowed continued legal and grassroots resistance to the administration’s anti-labor actions.

“Here's What Airline Execs Are Saying (Anonymously) About U.S. Demand,” Airline Observer

US airline executives are increasingly pessimistic about travel demand, with many warning that domestic softness observed in early 2025 may mark the onset of a broader economic downturn. An exec texted the reporter the Mulaney bit about the horse in the hospital. While pockets like transatlantic leisure remain resilient, insiders told the Airline Observer that recent optimism now looks misplaced, as forward bookings and nonpublic data point to sustained weakness, especially in Washington, DC, and the government travel sector. Executives are urging honesty in upcoming earnings calls, warning that sugarcoating demand trends could backfire. Meanwhile, United Airlines surprised industry watchers by launching new “tag” flights via Hong Kong, betting on a low-risk expansion into Southeast Asia.

“Most of the public data on demand is backward-looking, and it’s not great. ARC’s February sales data suggests that U.S. carriers struggled that month, with total sales decreasing by 3.54 percent year-over-year, and passenger trips falling by 1.34 percent (1.91 percent for domestic, and 0.43 percent for international). Meanwhile, IATA reported this week that U.S. passenger traffic in February decreased 4.2 percent year-over-year — more than in any other domestic market IATA monitors — while capacity decreased 1.2 percent.”

“Spirit to Transition Its Model to Fly Only on Peak Travel Days,” Cranky Flier

Spirit Airlines plans to exclusively fly on peak travel days, mostly eliminating its operations on off-peak days while still improving aircraft utilization to meet financial obligations. The airline will completely cease flights on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays, shifting strategy to cater to a demand that they believe focuses on late-night departures. Additionally, the airline is investing in longer-haul flights to maximize usage while performing maintenance on the off days. Cranky Flier is skeptical.